Thursday, March 4, 2010

Announcement and links 2/4

Free will is an illusion, biologist says - PhysOrg

Our indiscretion sometimes serves us well,
When our deep plots do pall: and that should teach us
There's a divinity that shapes our ends,
Rough-hew them how we will,--

-- William Shakespeare, The Tragedy of Hamlet, Prince of Denmark

No Wonder the Economy Isn’t Improving – George Washington

The second article is a nice summary of the myriad problems we face, many related to moral hazard, that are weighing upon the economy.

While I agree the economy is very sick, largely due to the expropriation of a morally disproportionate share of income and wealth by a ruling class that has manipulated both the corporations (our dominant social form) and federal income tax structure (which was put up for sale most recently by Ronald Reagan near the beginning of the current movement to record-high inequality), my expertise is in modeling the collapse of “animal spirits” that is the fundamental proximate cause of every business slump. 

By these lights, we are in an “expansion” phase of the business cycle, and will be until the next collapse of “animal spirits,” which I tentatively forecast for about 2013, but which I’ll be able to forecast with much greater certainty a year ahead of the event.

The announcement is that I will be out-of-pocket tomorrow and Saturday.  The next “animal spirits” update will be available by Monday morning.

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