Is global warming unstoppable?

Via:  Science Daily

ScienceDaily (Nov. 24, 2009) — In a provocative new study, a University of Utah scientist argues that rising carbon dioxide emissions -- the major cause of global warming -- cannot be stabilized unless the world's economy collapses or society builds the equivalent of one new nuclear power plant each day.

"It looks unlikely that there will be any substantial near-term departure from recently observed acceleration in carbon dioxide emission rates," says the new paper by Tim Garrett, an associate professor of atmospheric sciences.

Garrett's study was panned by some economists and rejected by several journals before acceptance by Climatic Change, a journal edited by Stanford University climate scientist Stephen Schneider. The study will be published online the week of November 23.

The study -- which is based on the concept that physics can be used to characterize the evolution of civilization -- indicates:

• Energy conservation or efficiency doesn't really save energy, but instead spurs economic growth and accelerated energy consumption.
• Throughout history, a simple physical "constant" -- an unchanging mathematical value -- links global energy use to the world's accumulated economic productivity, adjusted for inflation. So it isn't necessary to consider population growth and standard of living in predicting society's future energy consumption and resulting carbon dioxide emissions.
• "Stabilization of carbon dioxide emissions at current rates will require approximately 300 gigawatts of new non-carbon-dioxide-emitting power production capacity annually -- approximately one new nuclear power plant (or equivalent) per day," Garrett says. "Physically, there are no other options without killing the economy."

Getting Heat for Viewing Civilization as a "Heat Engine"

Garrett says colleagues generally support his theory, while some economists are critical. One economist, who reviewed the study, wrote: "I am afraid the author will need to study harder before he can contribute."

"I'm not an economist, and I am approaching the economy as a physics problem," Garrett says. "I end up with a global economic growth model different than they have."

Article continues here.

Read the paper at arXiv.org here.  Should be read in conjunction with that oldie-but goodie, “Finite-time singularity in the dynamics of the world population, economic and financial indices” found here.

Moral: Prepare for a lower standard of living.

Global warming cooling

With the hacking of the East Anglia climate lab’s data and documents, and the revelations therein (that Mish does an adequate job of summarizing) I am reminded of the late Michael Crichton’s remarks on the subject to the National Press Club.  Crichton was admirable for maintaining throughout his life—even after becoming rich and celebrated—the ability to apply critical thinking skills typical of college graduates of the early postwar period to current events.  In other words, he resisted spin.  I recommend reading “The Case for Skepticism on Global Warming” (2005).  Crichton shows that just on the face of the research presented, global warming was a fraud.

But remember, Al Gore (allegedly) invented the Internet, so he must know what he’s talking about.  And he also got really rich selling fear, a topic that Crichton addressed in his novel State of Fear.  George W. Bush made fear-mongering his stock in trade, and Dick Cheney is pathetically still carrying the torch.

We have so many fear-mongers now that it’s hard to get good panic attack going.  Was that a meteor streaking across the Western sky that if it had been bigger could have started the next ice age in six months?  Oh well, back to worrying about the collapse of the world economy….

Maybe people will wake up, learn to think, and shut the fear-mongers up.

***

Movie rental recommendation:  Food, Inc.  Eye-popping.  Corporate consolidation of the food industry based on mass production and the horrors thereof; the demand for organic food by consumers is the only hope as Walmart and others come on board. 

When the Supreme Court gave corporations the right to patent life forms, they set the stage for evil on a planetary scale by agribusinesses.  Thank you, Clarence Thomas.

Crichton’s novel Next is an entertaining diatribe on this topic, although he seems to have given up the fight spiritually.  It was one of his last novels.

The housecleaning that the human race faces over coming decades is truly staggering, if we are not to perish by our own misdeeds.