I’m on the pavement, thinkin’ ‘bout the governeent

Via:  AP

You're Bob Dylan? NJ police want to see some ID

By WAYNE PARRY, Associated Press Writer Wayne Parry, Associated Press Writer 24 mins ago

Rock legend Bob Dylan was treated like a complete unknown by police in a New Jersey shore community when a resident called to report someone wandering around the neighborhood.

Dylan was in Long Branch, about a two-hour drive south of New York City, on July 23 as part of a tour with Willie Nelson and John Mellencamp that was to play at a baseball stadium in nearby Lakewood.

A 24-year-old police officer apparently was unaware of who Dylan is and asked him for identification, Long Branch business administrator Howard Woolley said Friday.

"I don't think she was familiar with his entire body of work," Woolley said.

The incident began at 5 p.m. when a resident said a man was wandering around a low-income, predominantly minority neighborhood several blocks from the oceanfront looking at houses.

The police officer drove up to Dylan, who was wearing a blue jacket, and asked him his name. According to Woolley, the following exchange ensued:

"What is your name, sir?" the officer asked.

"Bob Dylan," Dylan said.

"OK, what are you doing here?" the officer asked.

"I'm on tour," the singer replied.

A second officer, also in his 20s, responded to assist the first officer. He, too, apparently was unfamiliar with Dylan, Woolley said.

The officers asked Dylan for identification. The singer of such classics as "Like a Rolling Stone" and "Blowin' in the Wind" said that he didn't have any ID with him, that he was just walking around looking at houses to pass some time before that night's show.

The officers asked Dylan, 68, to accompany them back to the Ocean Place Resort and Spa, where the performers were staying. Once there, tour staff vouched for Dylan.

The officers thanked him for his cooperation.

"He couldn't have been any nicer to them," Woolley added.

How did it feel? A Dylan publicist did not immediately return a telephone call seeking comment Friday.

Where is the American eagle going?

James Quinn does a nice job summarizing the Fourth Turning’s prophesies for the next twenty years, which I have discussed in The crisis at the end of the saeculum and Onward to Ekpyrosis….

It is stunning that mainstream macroeconomics, handmaiden to the status quo, continues to frame the problem as the level of output, not the distribution of income.  American per capita GDP is higher than it ever has been before.   The problem is that the ruling class does not know how to share.  They have manipulated the financial system and the fiscal and monetary authorities to suck up unprecedented amounts of the nation’s wealth to themselves.  (Review assignment:  Debt and income inequality.)

Learning how to share will be the most important challenge of the coming crisis. 

The long and short of it

Why Europeans are getting taller and taller-and Americans aren’t  h/t orlingrabbe.com
The Speed of Short People – h/t Kedrosky

Biden insults President Obama’s dog at Syracuse

Our more discerning readers may have noticed that our mascot, Tyler (to the left, not a picture of the author) is a Portuguese Water Dog.  President Obama’s new dog is a Portuguese Water Dog.  Vice President Biden has a new dog as well, in the fight, so to speak, which (speak) the Veep did, in Syracuse, insulting the Presidential pooch quite handily, before backpedaling as quickly as he could.

Via: Christian Science Monitor

It was as though Vice President Biden time-warped back to last fall. Because on Sunday he was in full campaign attack mode.

Oh, it was an idyllic setting. Nobody saw it coming. The vice president had just finished delivering the commencement address at Syracuse University and stopped by to chat with students at Bellevue Elementary School.

During the intense question and answer period, one child asked the vice president if he had ever petted a dog.

“Yeah, but guess what? I’ve got a dog that lives with me,” Biden replied. “The smartest, coolest dog in the world.”

Normally, you’d leave it at that. You’ve praised your dog. Why denigrate another?

Because in campaigns you have to differentiate yourself from your opponent. And campaigns are in Biden’s blood. That’s when he let it be known that Bo Obama was a dolt.

“The new dog I have is only five months old and his name is Champ,” Biden told the schoolkids.

“My dog is smarter than Bo, his dog,” he jabbed.

“I think so,” he taunted. Yeah, I do.”

An astute politician, Biden apparently didn’t want to be seen as a mudslinger so he conceded that “Bo’s a beautiful dog too.”

To watch the full shocking video, click here.  To understand what Vice President Biden meant to say, watch Robert Gibbs’ press briefing tomorrow.

Outrage deficit

Spring has sprung, the “animal spirits” are improving, and I just read an inspiring piece over at newdeal20.org by a minister recounting how social security got started, so I am deficient on the shrillness scale this morning:

In 1934, a retired dentist from California named Francis Townsend wrote a letter to the editor of his local paper. He was 66 years old, unemployed and without any savings. His plan was simple: Every citizen over age 60 would receive a check from the government for $200, to be paid for by a 2% sales tax. Jonathan Alter writes that, “Within a year, five thousand ‘Townsend Clubs’ across the country represented between 2 and 5 million members – a powerful new elderly lobby poised to take Congress by storm.”

Inside the administration, Frances Perkins, FDR’s Secretary of Labor and the first woman to be appointed to the U.S. Cabinet, immediately began to advocate for a kind of “social insurance” for the elderly. During FDR’s first year in office, she made more than 100 speeches building support for the idea across the country and brought it up at almost every meeting of the Cabinet.

Poverty rates were already high among the elderly but skyrocketed during the Great Depression, with an estimated unemployment rate for those over 65 at well above 50%. Stories of the old and poor dying alone or starving to feed their grandchildren began to grow. In the midst of crisis, our country made a decision of a distinctly moral nature that the failure of the market to provide for our oldest citizens should no longer be tolerated. It was this moral decision that eventually created one of the key building blocks of FDR’s New Deal, Social Security.

There is no evidence that the New York-Washington D.C. power elite are loosening their grip on the country, or will do so, ever (as Yves and other prominent bloggers keep reminding us) or that the future for much of the baby boom will be more than what passes today for subsistence (I like to joke that I’ll be retiring to a double-wide in the desert in one of FEMA’s “retirement villages”).  The elite with their sticky fingers and unrelenting greed will drive us toward the crisis Strauss and Howe predict (see Onward to Ekpyrosis, Death and Rebirth of American...).  There may not be an external enemy credible enough to launch a “world war” (Iraq didn’t work out that way, despite the theatrics, and Russia is still basically a bunch of drunks).  So I’d guess we’ll have something more like a revolution or break-up fomented by the immiseration of the mass of Americans next time, an alternation back to a domestic crisis like the one before the last one, the Civil War.  But it will take us a about decade to get there, if the saeculum runs true to form.

The economics mainstream is studiously ignoring the powerful theory of “animal spirits” of the obscure economist that I’ve dug up and tried to resuscitate, even as the model once again appears poised to beat the consensus forecast… so that the stimulus will be piled upon an organic expansion, just like everyone thought was the problem with fiscal policy… before the Panic of 2008 distorted their thinking.

Sufficient unto the day….

Springtime ruminations

For the really big picture it’s helpful to think in terms of “Finite-time singularity in the dynamics of the world population, economic and financial indices” (arXiv:cond-mat/0002075), Sornette and Johansen’s exploration of the idea that humanity is at “the end of the growth era.”  The implication of their analysis is that “this crisis” will go on for decades until a “phase change” of human behavior is accomplished to a new attractor, which could be benign or nasty, brutish and short, depending on how humanity decides to conduct itself.

Strauss and Howe’s imaginative and weirdly prophetic The Fourth Turning (1997) explores the present crisis as the latest in a series of crises in Anglo-American history.  I’ve posted about their theories and their prophesies from the mid-1990s that caught so much of what has happened since.  In a narrative sense they were truly uncanny.  See The Crisis at the End of the Saeculum and Onward to Ekpyrosis, Death and Rebirth of American….  A site that nicely summarizes the nature of the crisis and the authors’ prescriptions for behavior going into this crisis is found here and here.  A few snippets from the latter:

How does America Prepare? ¹

Prepare Values

The goal is to forge values that uplift the culture.  Leaders need to look to unite and not divide based on stark ideologies.   If we move towards the later it can cause a lot of damage.  The goal is to generate a values structure that can be bought into by the majority of Americans so that we can pull together as a country and not get pulled a part.

Prepare Institutions
Public institutions may be challenged to support us during the crisis.  Therefore, it is important to cut out and simplify the government structures without threatening their infrastructure.  The authors state we should look at state and local governments as policy testers - that can test new solutions quickly to see if they have impact on emerging problems.

Prepare Politics
Bottom line - come together!  We do not have the luxury of partisanship - Republicans and Democrats must forge a partnership that bluntly defines the problems we face and works together to forge solutions.

Prepare Society
If this turning comes to pass it will require a level of public sacrifice as well as teamwork.  Start now to get involved on a local level and encourage your children to get involved in their communities.  Ultimately we must refocus on becoming involved citizens in a positive way.

Prepare Youth
As with World War II - the brunt of this crisis will fall on the shoulders of those born from 1982 on (the Millennial Generation).  We need to invest in our youth and ensure even the most needy are prepared to take on their role to be the muscle behind our emergence from the Fourth Turning.

Prepare Elders
Except for the very old - it will be likely that we will need to cut back on elder care and create the expectation that elders will have to be more self-sufficient.  If the economy continues to sour and is a central outcome of the turning - then we will likely not be able to rely on social security.  The key is to up our savings and be prepared to live far more simply.

Prepare the Economy
It is likely during the Fourth Turning that we will face “extreme shocks” to our economy.  Asset values are likely to drop, unemployment will likely grow, the industrial structure will be strained and we may deal with issues of inflation or deflation.  Therefore, we must work on correcting certain fundamentals without pushing for performance levels we might have come accustomed to during the good times.  Again, we need to encourage citizens to save.

Prepare Defense
We must be prepared for anything!  Expect the worst and be flexible enough to mobilize where and when we have to.

Ultimately - the authors say these are modest steps yet they indicate that during the Third Turning  we can only do some things to prepare because there is no way of knowing what we will turn on.

Preparing As Individuals ²

Rectify classic Virtues
During a time of crisis people will look to those in their communities they can count on.  This is because communities are drawn together more and are more active about supporting each other to get through difficult times.  Your reputation will be key to being included in this support.  This means people will be more attentive to how you keep your word, how you roll up your sleeves and how much they feel you can be counted on.

Converge with Your Community
This relates to the item above.  Yet, the point is to get involved and to stay plugged in to your local community.  At the depth of the crisis you might have to actually chose whether you are more aligned to your local community versus the national one.  It would be good to start now so that the structure of support is in place.

Bond by Strengthening Personal Relationships of all Kinds
Having a strong network will be critical.  Your personal relationships will be harbors for support, giving, and receiving encouragement.  Face to face contact will also be more important - with your family, employees, friends, and others who can provide support.

Prepare Yourself and Your Children for Teamwork
The time hibernating in our homes will be over.  The goal will be to get out and get involved in community projects that support the whole’s well being - not just your own.  Expect and encourage your children to get more involved in community service.

Look to Your Family For Support
Your ultimate safety net will be your extended family.  If you do not have strong connections or have lost them due to the hustle and bustle of life - make an effort to reconnect and strengthen those ties.

Prepare for the Weakening of Public Support
Today’s level of public support could be weakened during “The Fourth Turning.”  The two things to focus on are making sure you are saving plenty of extra money (even if it means reducing your lifestyle) and ensuring you are vital and healthy. Being financially and physically healthy will reduce your stress during this time.

Diversify Everything You Do
The people who will do best during a time of crisis are the generalists.  Many businesses will be challenged to remain relevant so consider the skills you have an  how they can be applied in other ways.  Assume that safety nets (medicare, social security and pensions) could totally be shredded.  Look at your investments and make sure they are diversified as well.  “Enter the turning understanding your cash flow, diversified savings and some liquid assets.  Really know where your money is.”

Cheers.

A modest proposal: ignore macroeconomists

Much as I like Paul Krugman for his post-‘Sixties punk affect and basically good liberal heart, I think the country would be better off if the President and Congress ignored everything he and every other liberal macroeconomist said about fixing the economy and followed one simple principle instead:

Take care of the American people.

Now, conservatives do not subscribe, generally, when it comes to welfare or helping common people.  Historically they have favored welfare for the rich, usually through tax breaks for the highly compensated or through wars that expend the cannon fodder of the lower classes and line the pockets of the sultans of the military-industrial complex.

What I’m arguing is that given the fact that the country has more debt than it will be able to pay off all the talk about deficit spending to close output gaps is nonsense.  The last time debt/GDP got this high we had a Depression.  I don’t see why it should be different this time.  We achieved a level of output that was unsustainable.  The output gap is relative to a fiction.

Also, it is a fundamental truth that domestic aggregate demand begins with consumption, which drives investment demand.  Of course, there’s also government spending, but we’ll come to that.

So if you want to stimulate aggregate demand, give money to people who will spend it, like the unemployed.  We have about 15 million people who fall into that category.  Provide them with health benefits, so the stress of their situation doesn’t show up in health care costs in the future.  I favor a poverty level dole and free health care for the unemployed and working poor. 

One thing that doesn’t stimulate aggregate demand is buying bad loans from banks at inflated prices and putting it on the taxpayers’ tab.  A lot of that debt needs to be written of, the sooner the better.

What about lending?  Lending is slow because the economy is in a depressed state.  Bank commercial and industrial lending declined after the last two recessions and can be expected to do so this time.  But there are healthy banks out there who are still lending, and many smart businesses know who they are.  Look at who’s increasing lending to find out who these banks are.

Don’t need any tax cuts, but could probably raise taxes on incomes in the top 1% substantially without cramping their style much.  And get rid of the obscene “hedge fund exemption.”

We’re looking at some very rough times ahead, a decade of crises as bad or worse than the current one.  We’ve got to get our objectives right before we spend any more money. 

Take care of the people and the economy will take care of itself, will even self-organize.  It’s a “middle way” not likely to win support from either party.

No more macroeconomist philosopher kings arguing about stimulus packages that will go through corrupt contracting processes, no more Wall Street robber barons.  But this approach would require the American people to have more control over their government than have now.

Gotta have a dream.

Maybe the Tories who went north were just better stock…

This will put a smile on your face.  ht Jesse

Trailing P/E on the S&P 500—wow, what a bull market!

Added April 11:  See also Zero Hedge on the coming black swan of black swans.  Zero Hedge provides as close to an insider’s view of our corrupted financial system as any web site I know.