Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran

Via:  John Robb in a really bad mood. He believes the neocons long-desired war will happen.  The President was banging the war drums in his speech last night.  Remember, historically a war is the quickest way to get an inflation started—to inflate out our debt and beat everyone else in the super-nova of Bretton Woods to the punch.

I’ve spent a considerable amount of time over the last decade working on “what if” scenarios for the Pentagon, CIA, and NSA.

One of those scenarios, naturally, was a war with Iran (one of the world’s top oil exporting countries).

A little known conclusion of that scenario analysis was that a war with Iran greatly increased when deep sanctions were applied.

Why?  Simply:

  1. Sanctions disconnect the Iranians from the global economy which soften the impact of a war with them.
  2. Sanctions also accelerate societal and economic decay in Iran, making it highly likely that it would start a conflict.

The reason I’m bringing this up, is that these deep sanctions are now being put in place.

In particular, the EU is about to start a boycott Iranian oil and the Chinese are already looking for alternatives.

This means one thing:  our governments have radically increased the probability of a war with Iran.

Oh joy.

So, what does a war with Iran mean?  I could spend hours on this analysis, but most of that really would not matter to you.  What does matter is that a war with Iran will ripple through the world as energy prices zoom and economies already on the brink crump.

It will be a global train wreck, and through tight coupling, you will be along for the ride.

So, what can you do?  Most of the advice you will get will be hedge your finances.  That’s fine, but that’s only a small part of the solution and clearly insufficient given the exposures involved.

No, what you really need to do is decouple your future from the world’s future.   To find a way to stay connected to the benefits of a huge global economy while eliminating your exposure to its downsides.

The best ways, and likely the only way, to do this is to live in a resilient community.  A community that produces most of what it needs and is not dependent on continuous support from an increasingly unstable global network.

See also:

Contrary to Widespread Claims, There Is NO EVIDENCE that Iran Is Building a Nuclear Weapon

Posted on January 25, 2012 by WashingtonsBlog

Iran Is NOT Building a Nuclear Bomb

Earlier this month, Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta said:

Are they [the Iranians] trying to develop a nuclear weapon? No. But we know that they’re trying to develop a nuclear capability. And that’s what concerns us.

Director of National Intelligence James Clapper confirmed in a Senate hearing – following the release of the classified National Intelligence Estimate in 2011 – that he has a “high level of confidence” that Iran “has not made a decision as of this point to restart its nuclear weapons program.” […]

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