Based on my judgmental forecast of the unemployment rate, which I expect to break below 8.0 percent just in time for the election, then to shoot up as the global slowdown catches up with the US. In 2013 and 2014 the US will undeniably be in depression, in this view. The next slump will be only about a year long (meaning the phase of negative aggregate growth) but will conclude in 2014 with unemployment at depression levels, but nowhere near as bad as it is in some parts of Europe. The latter part of the decade will present the most fertile breeding ground for fascist extremism in a century, not only in the failed state of Europe but in America.
I am basing my forecast in part on the purely technical observation that previous “global” peaks in unemployment have come at the end of three local peaks on the way up.