Tuesday, January 1, 2013

Economic and Distributional Effects of the Senate Tax Bill

Via: taxfoundation.org (links to study page)

House passed it. Can you say, “Slow is beautiful”?  I am sticking with my forecast that the next NBER-defined recession will [be determined to have] begi[u]n in mid-2013, whenever the NBER gets around to determining it.

A few nuggets: 

  • impact on GDP, –1.38 percent;
  • effect on deficit, $37.2 billion reduction (on a ~$1000 billion deficit);
  • $GDP/delta $Tax , –8.0X



Note that the table above obviously doesn’t include the effects of the payroll tax cut expiring.  I have emailed the author and asked him to revise it.

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