Wednesday, May 6, 2009

On the road

Next post will be the “animal spirits” update on Monday.

Here are some oldies but goodies in the meantime:

2 comments:

  1. AnonymousMay 7, 2009 at 9:25 PM

    Dr. Brodwicz,

    Have you detailed the methodology for combining the Animal Spirts metric and the yield curve slope into 12-month forward-looking recession forecast?

    I've read the paper "'Animal spirits’ and expectations in nonlinear U.S. recession forecasting", which hints at the method but does not reveal the necessary details to duplicate the results in that paper.

    I appreciate the blog. Your writings are practical, but have a consistent moral sensibility.

    Best regards,
    OregonGuy

    ReplyDelete
  2. UnknownMay 28, 2009 at 7:59 PM

    thanks, OregonGuy. the model is essentially the slope of the 1/10 yield curve and the animal spirits metric in a logistic model. the model is at http://arxiv.org/abs/0904.1431

    cheers,
    benign

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