Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Stock market demographics

Via:  San Francisco Fed  h/t www.macrofugue.com

To examine the historical relationship between demographic trends and stock prices, we consider a statistical model in which the equity price/earnings (P/E) ratio depends on a measure of age distribution (for another example, see Geanakoplos et al. 2004). We construct the P/E ratio based on the year-end level of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index adjusted for inflation and average inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 12 months. We measure age distribution using the ratio of the middle-age cohort, age 40–49, to the old-age cohort, age 60–69. We call this the M/O ratio.

Projected P/E ratio from demographic trends

Okay, in addition the current younger generation is saddled with record levels of student loan debt, the economy isn’t generating many good paying jobs, and we’re in a post credit crisis sucky cyclical recovery.

By these lights the bear market could go another ten years.

1 comment:

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