Thursday, October 4, 2012

The signature of incipient depression

Historically, the signature of an oncoming depression consists of an unserviceable debt to GDP ratio and an aggregate demand choking level of income inequality (and wealth inequality).

The United States today resembles the US of 1929 more than that of 1941.  The warmongers inside the Beltway still salivate over the miraculous drop in income inequality that occurred in 1942 as America came together to fight the Axis.  They wish for another world war to propel America through the Fourth Turning into a new social cohesion.

Dubious proposition. 

I have published the supporting graphs before, but here they are:

The situation today is essentially as depicted in these graphs.

If the ruling class continues it manipulation of the tax system to its own advantage, with or without a Romney victory, given the broken, money-fouled state of our political system, I conclude that deeper depression will ensue, characterizing where we are as being similar to the 1930s, with positive growth, but as a relatively mild depression.

Some type of repeated systemic collapse looks more and more likely.

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